MODI DIPLOMACY & THE NSG KNOT

MODI DIPLOMACY & THE NSG KNOT

 

Mr Modi in his two years tenure has visited more than 30 countries and hugged and embraced countless world leaders. Sadly the sum total of all these efforts have not resulted in any significant gains to the country. He met and hugged Obama 7 times and in return Obama made a provision of a  whopping $804 million assistance package for Pakistan. Additionally the US is going to release $337 million shortly to Pakistan under the Coalition Support Fund. So you see Modi so called much publicised diplomatic efforts has not been able to wean the US from supporting a terrorist state which poses a threat not only to India but to  the entire world.

 Now take Nepal. In the aftermath of the devastating earth quake India provided massive aid to Nepal in the form of supplies,medicines and manpower to mitigate the sufferings of the Nepalese population.This was drummed up internationally in such a manner as if Modi personally saved Nepal from annihilation. Nepal gave a cold shoulder to India and suggested that China also equally contributed. Then what happened ? The relationship between India and Nepal on the issue of its constitution deterioted to such a extent that Nepal threatened to expel our ambassador and cut off all relationship with India. So if Modi could not even handle a small country with which we had centuries old friendly relation than it speaks a lot about his diplomatic skills.

Now we come to China. I still have that image in my mind of Modi entertaining President Xi Jinping on a swing in Ahemdabad. Modi is smiling as if swinging with Xi would stop the assaults which Chinese troops regularly make on the border or it would stop China from scheming with Pakistan to harass India.

 

Now take Italy. A lot of noise was made that the diplomatic skills of Modi at last succeeded in making Italy withdraw its objection to India's entry into the Missile Technology Control Regime paving the way to its becoming a member. What was kept discreet was the fact that Modi permitted the release of the Italian Marines against whom murder charges were pending for this favor. So there was no diplomatic skills involved here but plain and simple mafia like exchange deal. I shudder even to think what would have happened if during the UPA regime the Italians were to be released. The opposition BJP would have blamed Sonia and claimed that the Marines were her relatives or that she has received a hefty bribe from the Italian Government for their release.

Now we look into Modi diplomacy vis-a-vis Pakistan. Modi was in Kabul and was to return to India when it suddenly dawned upon him that Pakistan was a friend par excellence and Nawaz Sharif was his younger sibling. He just dropped on Lahore without any notice and hugged and kissed his younger brother and felicitated him on his birthday. He even gifted a pink Rajasthani turban to him! BJP hailed it as a master diplomatic stroke and Modi chest was further inflated with the measurement touching 62 inches. Then what happened afterwards took away all the euphoria and left India red faced limping with embarrassment. The most secured Pathankot air base was attacked by terrorists from Pakistan and a large number of our soldiers were killed. Instead of retaliating strongly by refusing to enter into any kind of dialogue with Pakistan till terrorists are punished ,Modi decided to go further with his frayed diplomacy. He invited a team from Pakistan to visit Pathankot to investigate with a ISI agent in it. The same ISI who would have probably trained the terrorists ! Then came the final humiliation. Pakistan denied any role in the attack and refused to accept a investigation team from India on a reciprocal basis.

 So this is the actual pathetic results of the much hyped Modi diplomacy. Presently India is desperately trying to gain entry into the 48 member Nuclear Supplier Group. India is seeking membership of NSG to enable it to trade in and export nuclear technology. The entry into the NSG would enable India to trade in nuclear plants to augment its energy starved cities and villages and to run the industrial and manufacturing plants of the present and future. However such a membership requires that the country should be a signatory to the NPT which India is not. It also requires the consent of all the present 48 members of the club. India says that it is not the procedure which is important but the credentials. China has rejected India's claim and have decided to oppose its entry into the NSG. The meeting of the NSG is scheduled on 24th of this month. So let us examine how Modi diplomacy is playing to win China over to its side.

1.Modi went to the US and Obama decided to issue a statement supporting India's bid to enter the NSG. It was easy for Obama to do this knowing well that China will never budge from its stand and therefore such a statement is hardly going to make any difference. It is pertinent to note that Modi did not succeed in convincing Obama to directly talk to President of China which would have had a definite impact on the Chinese. If even after 7 hugs Obama cannot effectively help Modi then obviously the diplomacy has not succeeded well.

2.On 16th of this month Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar secretly visited China to plead for their support. However the Chinese immediately issued a statement reiterating its position that India is not eligible for the membership.

3. On 19th of this month Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj issued a rather bizarre statement that India is not opposed to Pakistan entry to NSG and that China is not opposed to the entry of India to NSG. The first completely negates the stand taken by India till now that Pakistan has a bad nuclear proliferation record since its scientist AQ Khan openly distributed the technology to other countries and thus cannot become a member of NSG. The second is a pathetic attempt to woo China by wagging ones tail knowing well the intransigent stand of the Chinese. On the 20th China snubbed India by stating that the issue of India entry into the NSG is not even on the agenda of the club meeting to be held in Seoul on the 24th ! To rub salt on the wounds Pakistan issued a statement that it has successfully blocked India's entry into NSG.

4. To further humiliate India ,China declared yesterday that Pakistan is not responsible for the proliferation of nuclear technology but AQ Khan was personally responsible. It is like saying that Pakistan has no hand in breeding terrorist and planning terrorist attacks but the terrorist themselves are responsible or that Osama Bin Laden was himself responsible for hiding in Pakistan. There was not even a word from the Foreign Ministry slamming China for making this outrageous statement. So all that the Modi diplomacy on the issue has done till date, is to project India as a spineless nation, ready to lick the boots of both China and Pakistan.

5. Now the focus is on Modi and Xi Jinping meeting in Tashkent on the 23rd.BJP has hyped the meeting informing that Modi with his diplomatic skills would convince the President of China to drop its objections. After all both had a fun time together on the swings at the banks of river Sabarmati. Seeing how ineffective the Modi diplomacy is, it would be hardly surprising to see a rebuff coming from Xi Jinping.

Former Union Minister Arun Shourie once said that Modi suffers from “narcissism” and accused him of running a one-man “Presidential government” in a direction that was “dangerous” for India. This is entirely true. Modi is in love with himself and running a one man show. His diplomacy is created in the solitary confinement of his bedroom. He is averse to consulting experts and intellectuals.

Merely selfies,photo-ops,gesturing and waving hands and hugging world leaders do not constitute diplomacy. Diplomacy is a serious science and requires knowledge and expertise. Modi should realise that he is not running Gujrat but India. So will Modi be able to crack the NSG nut by his brand of diplomacy ? Let us see.

ASHOK KUMAR

22.06.16